CMCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMCM - Cheetah Mobile Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing fifty (50) Class A Ordinary Shares
$3.14
-0.17 (-5.14%)
▼
5d:
+3.29%
30d:
-28.47%
90d:
-42.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.77
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.20
25.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCM is currently trading at $3.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.26 to $4.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (3.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.65, while resistance sits at $3.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.38 (+198.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.65, while resistance sits at $3.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.38 (+198.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.26 -
$4.33
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 198.6% below Wall St target ($9.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.26 -
$4.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.65
Resistance Level
$3.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.95
Wall Street Target
$9.38
(+198.6%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.5%
Profit Margin
-21.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.0 vs 3.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.54
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$3.52
(+12%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.0 to 3.0
Stabilization Target:
$4.83
(+53.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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