CNK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNK - Cinemark Holdings, Inc.
$25.96
-0.40 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
-4.07%
30d:
-13.47%
90d:
+4.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CNK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CNK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.92
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.65
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNK is currently trading at $25.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.16 to $30.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.00 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.00 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.16 -
$30.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($34.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.16 -
$30.14
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.78
Resistance Level
$29.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.76
Wall Street Target
$34.00
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.7%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.18
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$24.43
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$23.69
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$25.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.2%)
$77.32
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 13.2%)
$37.69
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 13.2%)
$32.03
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.30
Bull Case
$53.83
(+107%)
Analyst growth 85.6%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$48.93
(+89%)
Market implied 85.6%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$17.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$28.48
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Thomas
SELL
7944 shares
2026-02-04
Melissa Thomas
SELL
22082 shares
2025-12-10
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