CPA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CPA - Copa Holdings, S.A.
$107.83
-3.08 (-2.78%)
▼
5d:
-4.9%
30d:
-22.21%
90d:
-11.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CPA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CPA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$239.11
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$148.47
27.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CPA is currently trading at $107.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.27 to $137.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $107.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.27 (+46.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $107.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.27 (+46.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$111.27 -
$137.41
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.3% below Wall St target ($162.27)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$111.27 -
$137.41
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.83
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.95
Resistance Level
$118.77
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.64
Wall Street Target
$162.27
(+46.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.70
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$96.96
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$90.66
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$110.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.3%)
$766.14
(+591%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 20.3%)
$192.93
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 20.3%)
$163.99
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.28
Bull Case
$145.11
(+28%)
Analyst growth 21.0%, PE expands to 7.4
Base Case
$131.92
(+16%)
Market implied 21.0%, PE stable at 6.7
Bear Case
$74.11
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$135.67
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CPA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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