CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$28.48
-0.17 (-0.59%)
▼
5d:
+4.28%
30d:
-20.13%
90d:
-9.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.97
56.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $28.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.51 to $33.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$27.51 -
$33.28
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.51 -
$33.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.95
Resistance Level
$36.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$30.00
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→25)
$39.17
(+38%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 61.1%)
$159.27
(+459%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 61.1%)
$96.12
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 61.1%)
$81.70
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$53.73
(+88.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+88.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 12:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carl C Icahn
BUY
275012 shares
2026-02-24
Carl C Icahn
BUY
244940 shares
2026-02-23
Carl C Icahn
BUY
263452 shares
2026-02-20
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