CVLG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$43.94
-0.89 (-1.99%)
▼
5d:
+0.27%
30d:
+4.84%
90d:
+58.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVLG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVLG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $43.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.20 to $45.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $47.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.55, while resistance sits at $47.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.20 -
$45.10
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 20.3% above Wall St target ($35.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.2% growth with 14.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.20 -
$45.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.56
Resistance Level
$47.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.74
Wall Street Target
$35.00
(-20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.2%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 12.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.42
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$53.36
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$58.80
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 56.7%)
$192.96
(+339%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 56.7%)
$148.30
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 56.7%)
$110.74
(+152%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 28.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.57
Bull Case
$53.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$43.94
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$33.61
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Ray Parker
SELL
30400 shares
2026-02-20
David Ray Parker
SELL
55000 shares
2026-02-19
David Ray Parker
SELL
65000 shares
2026-02-18
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