DORM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DORM - Dorman Products, Inc. New
$105.22
0.86 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
-1.62%
30d:
-9.46%
90d:
-16.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DORM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DORM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.59
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.40
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DORM is currently trading at $105.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.59 to $116.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DORM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $98.44, while resistance sits at $109.88.
Market Sentiment: DORM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.38 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DORM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $98.44, while resistance sits at $109.88.
Market Sentiment: DORM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.38 (+45.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$101.59 -
$116.08
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.8% below Wall St target ($153.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$101.59 -
$116.08
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.80
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.45
Resistance Level
$109.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.35
Wall Street Target
$153.38
(+45.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-78.8%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.91
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$96.77
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$92.80
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$105.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$289.80
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$147.20
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$125.12
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.64
Bull Case
$156.59
(+51%)
Analyst growth 39.6%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$142.35
(+37%)
Market implied 39.6%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$69.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$119.57
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DORM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donna M Long
SELL
947 shares
2026-03-12
Donna M Long
SELL
812 shares
2026-01-02
John Mcknight
SELL
2000 shares
2025-12-12
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