EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$13.37
0.28 (2.14%)
▲
5d:
+4.53%
30d:
-1.33%
90d:
+11.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.52
Based on -4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $13.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.17 to $14.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.61, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: EC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.61, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: EC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.30
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.49)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.61
Resistance Level
$14.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$12.49
(-4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.20
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$11.37
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$10.60
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$13.14
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -13.7%)
$25.59
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -13.7%)
$9.54
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -13.7%)
$8.11
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$17.75
(+36%)
Analyst growth 21.4%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$16.14
(+23%)
Market implied 21.4%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$9.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$16.23
(+24.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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