EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$14.70
0.25 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
+1.73%
30d:
-8.01%
90d:
+1.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.49
Based on -7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $14.70, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.67 to $16.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.67 -
$16.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($13.35)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.67 -
$16.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.38
Resistance Level
$16.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.14
Wall Street Target
$13.35
(-9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.27
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$13.86
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$13.46
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$14.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -19.6%)
$25.52
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -19.6%)
$10.72
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -19.6%)
$9.11
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$18.25
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$16.59
(+13%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$9.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$16.08
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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