ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$81.34
0.90 (1.12%)
▲
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
+2.94%
90d:
+21.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ECPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ECPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.12
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $81.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.46 to $82.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.00 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.00 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.46 -
$82.17
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($111.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.46 -
$82.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.02
Resistance Level
$83.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.89
Wall Street Target
$111.00
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$78.28
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$76.79
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$80.89
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$363.67
(+347%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$97.65
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$83.00
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.84
Bull Case
$95.24
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.6%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$86.58
(+6%)
Market implied 7.6%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$54.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$85.68
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
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