ECPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
$84.07
-0.23 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
+2.84%
30d:
+22.07%
90d:
+51.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ECPG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.39
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ECPG is currently trading at $84.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.93 to $81.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.67 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ECPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ECPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.67 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.93 -
$81.75
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($96.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.93 -
$81.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.62
Resistance Level
$85.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.30
Wall Street Target
$96.67
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
151.6%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.15
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$84.24
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$84.32
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$84.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.7%)
$394.50
(+369%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$120.49
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$102.42
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.91
Bull Case
$113.51
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.4%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$103.19
(+23%)
Market implied 22.4%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$57.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 3:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ECPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan B Bell
SELL
260 shares
2026-03-03
Ryan B Bell
SELL
7240 shares
2026-03-02
Ryan B Bell
SELL
2500 shares
2025-12-10
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