ERII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERII - Energy Recovery, Inc.
$8.40
-0.22 (-2.55%)
▼
5d:
-8.0%
30d:
-19.62%
90d:
-46.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ERII shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ERII shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.93
39.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERII is currently trading at $8.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.56 to $11.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.13, while resistance sits at $11.72.
Market Sentiment: ERII has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERII is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.13, while resistance sits at $11.72.
Market Sentiment: ERII has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+39.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.56 -
$11.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.2% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.56 -
$11.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.14
Resistance Level
$11.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.77
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+39.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.83
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$7.11
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$6.45
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$8.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 1900.0%)
$59.51
(+590%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 1900.0%)
$29.09
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 1900.0%)
$24.73
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$18.28
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$16.62
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$5.65
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.52
(+33.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
2419 shares
2026-04-06
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
165292 shares
2026-04-02
Arve Hanstveit
SELL
11582 shares
2026-03-06
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