EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$220.15
1.00 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
-6.49%
30d:
+0.86%
90d:
+15.29%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.19
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $220.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $212.80 to $226.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$212.80 -
$226.77
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($223.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 1.9% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$212.80 -
$226.77
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$206.73
Resistance Level
$225.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.36
Wall Street Target
$223.56
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$225.87
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$231.75
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$237.77
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$220.47
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.1%)
$267.47
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -1.1%)
$213.23
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: -1.1%)
$181.25
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.17
Bull Case
$232.07
(+5%)
Analyst growth -3.7%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$210.97
(-4%)
Market implied -3.7%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$149.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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