EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$194.66
-7.45 (-3.69%)
▼
5d:
-7.5%
30d:
-1.47%
90d:
-17.2%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215.10
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $194.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.47 to $210.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $193.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.67 (+14.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $193.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.67 (+14.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$199.47 -
$210.07
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($222.67)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.47 -
$210.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$193.96
Resistance Level
$220.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.35
Wall Street Target
$222.67
(+14.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$192.71
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$190.79
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$188.88
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$194.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -1.1%)
$271.03
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: -1.1%)
$188.55
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: -1.1%)
$160.26
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.24
Bull Case
$212.90
(+9%)
Analyst growth -4.2%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$193.54
(-1%)
Market implied -4.2%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$137.43
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$200.32
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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