FIVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FIVE - Five Below, Inc. Common Stock
$213.64
-1.30 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-4.25%
30d:
-5.07%
90d:
+3.74%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
FIVE is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-06-18 with 242 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FIVE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FIVE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.39
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FIVE is currently trading at $213.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $221.36 to $237.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.3) is in line with its historical norms (31.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $203.88, while resistance sits at $240.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.77 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $203.88, while resistance sits at $240.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.77 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$221.36 -
$237.53
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.5% below Wall St target ($261.77)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$221.36 -
$237.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$203.89
Resistance Level
$240.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.31
Wall Street Target
$261.77
(+22.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.3 vs 31.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$210.44
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$207.28
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$204.17
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→32)
$213.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$294.69
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.3%)
$214.58
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$182.40
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.48
Bull Case
$257.19
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$233.81
(+9%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$146.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.3 to 31.7
Stabilization Target:
$223.45
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FIVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ronald Sargent
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-23
Kenneth R Bull
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-20
Kenneth R Bull
SELL
1925 shares
2026-01-15
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Advanced FIVE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FIVE price and gamma walls.
