GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$12.91
0.20 (1.57%)
▲
5d:
+5.39%
30d:
+22.84%
90d:
+32.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.54
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.37
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $12.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.76 to $12.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.76 -
$12.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.76 -
$12.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.84
Resistance Level
$11.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.27
Wall Street Target
$14.25
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.30
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$13.70
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$14.11
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.0%)
$41.65
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 22.0%)
$23.47
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 22.0%)
$19.95
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$27.96
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$25.42
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$8.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 06, 2026 8:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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