GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$10.65
-0.43 (-3.88%)
▼
5d:
-6.25%
30d:
+0.28%
90d:
-11.54%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.96
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.01
18.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $10.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.42 to $11.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 104.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.12 (+32.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.12 (+32.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.42 -
$11.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($14.12)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.42 -
$11.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.59
Resistance Level
$11.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.14
Wall Street Target
$14.13
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.26
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.88
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$9.51
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$10.60
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$40.46
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$18.59
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 20.4%)
$15.80
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$24.38
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$22.16
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$7.53
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.87
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pamela L Bentley
SELL
40000 shares
2025-12-16
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