GEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$75.18
0.37 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
+1.25%
30d:
+18.47%
90d:
+11.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.42
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $75.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.65 to $72.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.65 -
$72.54
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with -0.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.65 -
$72.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.16
Resistance Level
$65.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.71
Wall Street Target
$76.20
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.6%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 14.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.86
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$82.73
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$86.78
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$75.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$152.67
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 15.9%)
$117.15
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 15.9%)
$99.58
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$152.96
(+104%)
Analyst growth 85.9%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$139.06
(+85%)
Market implied 85.9%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$50.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-10
Bala Sathyanarayanan
SELL
2731 shares
2026-02-13
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