GEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEF - Greif, Inc.
$66.29
-0.08 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
-0.12%
90d:
-9.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GEF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GEF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.21
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEF is currently trading at $66.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.19 to $69.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 691.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.20 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GEF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.20 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$66.19 -
$69.02
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($78.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.19 -
$69.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.51
Resistance Level
$70.75
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.19
Wall Street Target
$78.20
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
691.7%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.02
(0%)
2-Year Target
$65.76
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$65.50
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$65.98
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$148.66
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 15.6%)
$102.39
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$87.03
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$140.89
(+113%)
Analyst growth 93.0%, PE expands to 30.2
Base Case
$128.08
(+93%)
Market implied 93.0%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$45.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$66.78
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 4:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Timothy Bergwall
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-10
Bala Sathyanarayanan
SELL
2731 shares
2026-02-13
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