GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GENI - Genius Sports Limited
$6.43
0.07 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
+18.2%
30d:
+5.58%
90d:
+41.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 29.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 29.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.17
71.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $6.43, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.71 to $6.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 29.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+58.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+58.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$5.71 -
$6.65
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.5% below Wall St target ($10.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.71 -
$6.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.42
Resistance Level
$6.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.63
Wall Street Target
$10.19
(+58.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
-22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-29.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-29.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→19)
$13.36
(+108%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 86.5%)
$71.30
(+1009%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 86.5%)
$21.70
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 86.5%)
$18.45
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$18.33
(+185.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+185.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GENI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GENI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.
