GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$15.98
-0.36 (-2.20%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GEO is down 13.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GEO is down 13.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.57
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.22
21.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $15.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.08 to $17.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 552.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.25 (+101.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.25 (+101.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.08 -
$17.60
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GEO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 101.8% below Wall St target ($32.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.08 -
$17.60
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.62
Resistance Level
$18.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.04
Wall Street Target
$32.25
(+101.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
552.6%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.76
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$15.54
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$15.32
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$16.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 55.6%)
$99.91
(+525%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 55.6%)
$53.93
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 55.6%)
$45.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$13.87
(-13%)
Analyst growth -21.4%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$12.61
(-21%)
Market implied -21.4%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$10.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$16.73
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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