GEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.
$17.33
0.52 (3.09%)
▲
5d:
-0.97%
30d:
+15.07%
90d:
+8.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
GEO is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $24 2026-06-18 with 5,399 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GEO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.13
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.68
26.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GEO is currently trading at $17.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.24 to $16.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 117.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+75.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GEO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: GEO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+75.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$14.24 -
$16.75
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 75.5% below Wall St target ($29.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.24 -
$16.75
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.20
Resistance Level
$17.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.44
Wall Street Target
$29.50
(+75.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
117.7%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.99
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$15.20
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$14.46
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$16.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 49.0%)
$131.48
(+682%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 49.0%)
$55.56
(+231%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 49.0%)
$47.22
(+181%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$17.68
(+4%)
Analyst growth -2.2%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$16.07
(-6%)
Market implied -2.2%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$11.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.58
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Michael Kernan
SELL
6633 shares
2026-03-04
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