GFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$40.63
0.36 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
-11.94%
30d:
-18.67%
90d:
-21.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.37
Based on -0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $40.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.41 to $48.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 196.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.66 (+50.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.66 (+50.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.41 -
$48.04
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.6% below Wall St target ($60.66)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.41 -
$48.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.24
Resistance Level
$47.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.47
Wall Street Target
$60.66
(+50.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
196.1%
Profit Margin
40.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.62
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$42.03
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -5.5%)
$100.47
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -5.5%)
$34.02
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -5.5%)
$28.92
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$61.10
(+52%)
Analyst growth 36.8%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$55.54
(+38%)
Market implied 36.8%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$27.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$57.66
(+43.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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