GFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$35.46
1.73 (5.13%)
▲
5d:
+8.04%
30d:
-8.04%
90d:
-26.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.4% annual earnings decline despite 196% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.4% annual earnings decline despite 196% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.24
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.51
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $35.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.90 to $39.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 196.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.37, while resistance sits at $40.87. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.78 (+60.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.37, while resistance sits at $40.87. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.78 (+60.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.90 -
$39.26
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.1% below Wall St target ($56.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.90 -
$39.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.37
Resistance Level
$40.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.28
Wall Street Target
$56.78
(+60.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
196.1%
Profit Margin
40.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.91
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$39.95
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.1%)
$134.68
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 3.1%)
$38.81
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 3.1%)
$32.99
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$53.20
(+50%)
Analyst growth 43.4%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$48.36
(+36%)
Market implied 43.4%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$22.94
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$54.80
(+54.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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