GPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPI - Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
$288.39
1.79 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
-6.46%
90d:
-12.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$525.97
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$326.59
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPI is currently trading at $288.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $300.38 to $325.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $299.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.50 (+50.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $299.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.50 (+50.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$300.38 -
$325.88
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.7% below Wall St target ($434.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$300.38 -
$325.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$299.56
Resistance Level
$343.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.07
Wall Street Target
$434.50
(+50.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$268.49
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$249.97
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$232.72
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$287.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$1466.48
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$408.91
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$347.57
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.31
Bull Case
$569.01
(+97%)
Analyst growth 80.5%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$517.28
(+79%)
Market implied 80.5%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$194.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$356.15
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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