GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$9.64
-0.57 (-5.58%)
▼
5d:
-9.31%
30d:
+0.94%
90d:
-22.38%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.48
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $9.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.38 to $10.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.79 (+22.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.79 (+22.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.38 -
$10.32
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($11.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.38 -
$10.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.56
Resistance Level
$11.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$11.79
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.68
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.72
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.76
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 38.2%)
$68.19
(+607%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 38.2%)
$25.42
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 38.2%)
$21.61
(+124%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$14.30
(+48%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$13.00
(+35%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$6.94
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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