GRBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc
$69.39
-0.66 (-0.94%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GRBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.78
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GRBK is currently trading at $69.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.19 to $72.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $62.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GRBK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $62.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$64.19 -
$72.32
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.5% above Wall St target ($62.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$64.19 -
$72.32
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.70
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.02
Resistance Level
$75.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.24
Wall Street Target
$62.00
(-11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.6%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$69.91
(0%)
3-Year Target
$69.84
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$70.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$143.33
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$65.83
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -2.1%)
$55.95
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.62
Bull Case
$68.52
(-1%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$62.29
(-10%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$47.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$70.45
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jed Dolson
SELL
15000 shares
2025-08-13
Jed Dolson
SELL
20000 shares
2025-08-12
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Advanced GRBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GRBK price and gamma walls.
