GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$52.69
2.08 (4.11%)
▲
5d:
+19.83%
30d:
+45.96%
90d:
+26.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: GSHD is 17.1% above its trading range ($44.98). Market expects -4.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: GSHD is 17.1% above its trading range ($44.98). Market expects -4.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.57
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.00
27.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $52.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.40 to $44.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.25 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.25 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.40 -
$44.98
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+17.1% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($65.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 17.1% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.40 -
$44.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$41.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.03
Wall Street Target
$65.25
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 21.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.32
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$48.05
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$45.89
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$52.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.3%)
$121.41
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 26.3%)
$106.06
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 26.3%)
$90.15
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$111.34
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.8
Base Case
$101.22
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.4
Bear Case
$34.41
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 21.8
Stabilization Target:
$60.37
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
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