GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$37.65
0.80 (2.17%)
▲
5d:
-7.86%
30d:
-12.95%
90d:
-22.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.85
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.38
52.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $37.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.76 to $46.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (24.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.84, while resistance sits at $44.79.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.58 (+83.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.84, while resistance sits at $44.79.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.58 (+83.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.76 -
$46.62
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 83.4% below Wall St target ($67.58)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.76 -
$46.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.84
Resistance Level
$44.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.47
Wall Street Target
$67.58
(+83.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 24.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.86
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→24)
$48.06
(+30%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 24.8%)
$117.14
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 24.8%)
$71.60
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 24.8%)
$60.86
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$87.23
(+137%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.3
Base Case
$79.30
(+115%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.8
Bear Case
$26.96
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 24.1
Stabilization Target:
$65.93
(+78.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+78.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
Thomas Mcconnon
SELL
69686 shares
2025-12-01
Mark Miller
BUY
5000 shares
2025-11-28
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