HDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HDL - SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. American Depositary Shares
$12.29
-0.11 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-8.35%
90d:
-29.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HDL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HDL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.38
33.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HDL is currently trading at $12.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.42 to $13.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HDL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.93 (+45.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HDL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.93 (+45.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.42 -
$13.41
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.9% below Wall St target ($17.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.42 -
$13.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.70
Resistance Level
$14.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.51
Wall Street Target
$17.93
(+45.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.0%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.45
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.68
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$9.95
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$12.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 37.9%)
$51.95
(+323%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 37.9%)
$32.21
(+162%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 37.9%)
$27.38
(+123%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$24.82
(+102%)
Analyst growth 82.0%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$22.57
(+84%)
Market implied 82.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$8.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$15.20
(+23.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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