HGTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$10.44
0.10 (0.97%)
▲
5d:
+3.78%
30d:
-0.85%
90d:
-13.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGTY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 410% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGTY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 410% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.10
35.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $10.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.17 to $10.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 410.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.17 -
$10.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($13.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.17 -
$10.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.69
Resistance Level
$10.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.19
Wall Street Target
$13.00
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 23.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.63
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.87
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$8.18
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$10.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 83.1%)
$42.74
(+309%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 83.1%)
$35.23
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 83.1%)
$29.95
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.24
Bull Case
$23.06
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.0
Base Case
$20.96
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.7
Bear Case
$7.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$13.31
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 9:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
4000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth Ahn
SELL
50000 shares
2026-01-26
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