HGTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGTY - Hagerty, Inc.
$12.39
0.33 (2.74%)
▲
5d:
+11.52%
30d:
+19.25%
90d:
+16.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HGTY is 7.6% above its trading range ($11.52). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HGTY is 7.6% above its trading range ($11.52). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.81
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGTY is currently trading at $12.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.24 to $11.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 410.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HGTY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.24 -
$11.52
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.24 -
$11.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.73
Wall Street Target
$12.86
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
410.3%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.28
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.17
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$12.06
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$12.37
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.56
Bull Case
$14.96
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$12.39
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$9.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.71
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Laurie Harris
SELL
5531 shares
2026-04-07
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
4000 shares
2026-03-12
Kenneth Ahn
SELL
50000 shares
2026-01-26
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