HLLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLLY - Holley Inc.
$2.99
0.08 (2.75%)
▲
5d:
+2.75%
30d:
-26.72%
90d:
-28.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HLLY is down 9.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $2.5 2026-05-15 with 1 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.93
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.92
39.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLLY is currently trading at $2.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.11 to $4.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.71, while resistance sits at $3.26.
Market Sentiment: HLLY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.17 (+77.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLLY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.71, while resistance sits at $3.26.
Market Sentiment: HLLY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.17 (+77.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$3.11 -
$4.19
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 77.5% below Wall St target ($5.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.11 -
$4.19
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.71
Resistance Level
$3.26
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.93
Wall Street Target
$5.17
(+77.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.7%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.12
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$3.06
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$17.73
(+509%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$5.49
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$4.66
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.16
Bull Case
$5.98
(+106%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$5.44
(+87%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$1.85
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$4.20
(+44.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HLLY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLLY price and gamma walls.
