HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$44.99
0.10 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
+1.08%
30d:
+0.56%
90d:
+5.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.91
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $44.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.45 to $45.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $43.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $43.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$44.45 -
$45.74
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($52.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.45 -
$45.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.65
Resistance Level
$46.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.89
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.77
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.54
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$44.32
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$44.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.7%)
$159.90
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 12.7%)
$64.38
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 12.7%)
$54.72
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.98
Bull Case
$62.82
(+40%)
Analyst growth 27.2%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$57.11
(+27%)
Market implied 27.2%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$30.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$45.57
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 11:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
Victor Fetter
BUY
3500 shares
2026-02-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-05
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