HMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMN - Horace Mann Educators Corporation
$53.85
1.23 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
+6.28%
30d:
+16.89%
90d:
+25.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HMN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.41
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMN is currently trading at $53.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.28 to $50.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$46.28 -
$50.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($52.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.28 -
$50.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.94
Resistance Level
$47.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.61
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.60
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$59.48
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$62.52
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.60
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$154.53
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$75.31
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$64.01
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.98
Bull Case
$73.78
(+37%)
Analyst growth 27.5%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$67.07
(+25%)
Market implied 27.5%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$35.78
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Beverley J Mcclure
SELL
1081 shares
2026-04-01
Victor Fetter
BUY
3500 shares
2026-02-25
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