HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$16.09
0.91 (5.99%)
▲
5d:
+6.42%
30d:
-8.94%
90d:
-0.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.6% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.6% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.36
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.20
30.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.13 to $17.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.13 -
$17.55
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($23.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.13 -
$17.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.48
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.82
Wall Street Target
$23.01
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.15
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$11.89
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$16.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.2%)
$123.30
(+666%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.8, Growth: 19.2%)
$27.27
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: 19.2%)
$23.18
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$33.40
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$30.36
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$10.32
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$21.71
(+34.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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