HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$18.30
0.15 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
-5.28%
30d:
+16.19%
90d:
-3.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When HNRG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.33
48.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $18.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.17 to $18.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (24.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.75, while resistance sits at $22.40.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+58.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.75, while resistance sits at $22.40.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+58.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$15.17 -
$18.38
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.5% below Wall St target ($29.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.17 -
$18.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.75
Resistance Level
$22.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.28
Wall Street Target
$29.00
(+58.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 24.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.34
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→24)
$21.30
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 519.5%)
$89.32
(+388%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 519.5%)
$61.76
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 519.5%)
$52.50
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$42.66
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$38.78
(+114%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$13.19
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 24.4
Stabilization Target:
$29.22
(+59.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles Ray Iv Wesley
BUY
20000 shares
2025-12-17
Charles Ray Iv Wesley
BUY
13000 shares
2025-11-21
Top Rated Thermal Coal Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Thermal Coal by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corp |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$34 | 54 HOLD |
