HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$27.12
0.31 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+11.47%
30d:
+27.92%
90d:
+7.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HRTG is 7.9% above its trading range ($25.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HRTG is 7.9% above its trading range ($25.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.54
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $27.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.39 to $25.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (5.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.39 -
$25.13
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.39 -
$25.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.48
Resistance Level
$22.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.73
Wall Street Target
$31.50
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
23.8%
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 5.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.12
(0%)
2-Year Target
$27.12
(0%)
3-Year Target
$27.12
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.98
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$135.91
(+401%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 9.7%)
$35.75
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$30.39
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$21.41
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.4%, PE expands to 4.5
Base Case
$19.46
(-28%)
Market implied -27.4%, PE stable at 4.1
Bear Case
$18.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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