HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$23.42
0.92 (4.09%)
▲
5d:
+4.51%
30d:
-14.18%
90d:
-5.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRTG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 20% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRTG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 20% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.43
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $23.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.38 to $29.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $20.98, while resistance sits at $29.41. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $20.98, while resistance sits at $29.41. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.38 -
$29.21
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($31.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.38 -
$29.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.98
Resistance Level
$29.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.11
Wall Street Target
$31.50
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
23.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.27
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$21.18
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$20.14
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$23.26
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$128.37
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$29.72
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$25.26
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$17.40
(-26%)
Analyst growth -29.7%, PE expands to 3.8
Base Case
$15.82
(-33%)
Market implied -29.7%, PE stable at 3.5
Bear Case
$15.30
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$27.04
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 7:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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