HTLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$13.30
0.16 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+0.61%
30d:
+17.39%
90d:
+17.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HTLD is down 3.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 702 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HTLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HTLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.14
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $13.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.45 to $13.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.6) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.45 -
$13.25
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($12.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.45 -
$13.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.79
(6.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.03
Resistance Level
$13.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.56
Wall Street Target
$12.20
(-8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.06
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$12.94
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
$13.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.6, Growth: 3842.5%)
$44.89
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 3842.5%)
$37.30
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 3842.5%)
$31.70
(+138%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.6 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$13.67
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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