HZO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HZO - MarineMax, Inc.
$34.48
-1.27 (-3.55%)
▼
5d:
-6.81%
30d:
-0.78%
90d:
+26.16%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HZO trades at premium valuation expecting 7.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HZO trades at premium valuation expecting 7.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HZO is currently trading at $34.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.51 to $36.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.75, while resistance sits at $35.82. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HZO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.75, while resistance sits at $35.82. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.51 -
$36.11
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HZO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.29)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.1% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.51 -
$36.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.38
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.75
Resistance Level
$35.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.28
Wall Street Target
$35.29
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.0%
Profit Margin
-2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.1% premium
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 17.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.93
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$39.55
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$42.36
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.44
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 123.8%)
$119.11
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 123.8%)
$116.37
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 123.8%)
$94.61
(+174%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HZO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HZO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HZO price and gamma walls.
