JCAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$16.21
-0.16 (-0.95%)
▼
5d:
+3.28%
30d:
-13.3%
90d:
-19.06%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JCAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JCAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.67
Based on 2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $16.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.02 to $18.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.50, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+58.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.50, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+58.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.02 -
$18.58
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.9% below Wall St target ($26.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.02 -
$18.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.50
Resistance Level
$17.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.63
Wall Street Target
$26.00
(+58.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.85
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$13.49
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$12.25
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$16.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 1.0%)
$65.75
(+302%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 1.0%)
$16.88
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 1.0%)
$14.35
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.15
Bull Case
$10.11
(-38%)
Analyst growth -43.5%, PE expands to 3.5
Base Case
$9.19
(-44%)
Market implied -43.5%, PE stable at 3.2
Bear Case
$11.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$21.81
(+33.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Burton
SELL
385000 shares
2026-01-09
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