JCAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCAP - Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$20.88
0.08 (0.38%)
ā²
5d:
+2.15%
30d:
+12.5%
90d:
-7.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: JCAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.14
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCAP is currently trading at $20.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.25 to $20.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.05, while resistance sits at $21.66.
Market Sentiment: JCAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.20 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCAP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.05, while resistance sits at $21.66.
Market Sentiment: JCAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.20 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.25 -
$20.70
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($26.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.25 -
$20.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.05
Resistance Level
$21.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.24
Wall Street Target
$26.20
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.25
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.65
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$19.06
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7ā8)
$20.78
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 1.6%)
$62.28
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 1.6%)
$21.89
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 1.6%)
$18.61
(-11%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$11.69
(-44%)
Analyst growth -48.9%, PE expands to 4.1
Base Case
$10.63
(-49%)
Market implied -48.9%, PE stable at 3.7
Bear Case
$14.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$22.77
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Burton
SELL
385000 shares
2026-01-09
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