JCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JCI - Johnson Controls International plc
$126.50
-4.79 (-3.65%)
▼
5d:
-5.08%
30d:
-12.34%
90d:
+3.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
JCI is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-04-17 with 11,100 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: JCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$220.74
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.06
7.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JCI is currently trading at $126.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.02 to $141.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.7) is in line with its historical norms (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $127.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JCI is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $127.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$131.02 -
$141.97
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.26)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$131.02 -
$141.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.49
Resistance Level
$138.38
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.66
Wall Street Target
$143.26
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.2%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 24.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$130.11
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$128.94
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$127.78
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
$131.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 16.9%)
$209.85
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.9%)
$198.71
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$168.90
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.98
Bull Case
$265.72
(+99%)
Analyst growth 86.2%, PE expands to 47.9
Base Case
$241.56
(+81%)
Market implied 86.2%, PE stable at 43.5
Bear Case
$88.20
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$134.87
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel C Mcconeghy
SELL
3600 shares
2026-02-23
Todd M Grabowski
SELL
6050 shares
2026-02-06
Mark Vergnano
BUY
7665 shares
2026-02-05
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Advanced JCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JCI price and gamma walls.
