JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$52.62
1.32 (2.57%)
▲
5d:
-0.04%
30d:
-2.99%
90d:
+27.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.95
13.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $52.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.49 to $60.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$51.49 -
$60.38
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.49 -
$60.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.31
Resistance Level
$59.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.59
Wall Street Target
$61.33
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
155.0%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.30
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$54.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$54.70
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$205.86
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 27.7%)
$109.51
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$93.08
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.76
Bull Case
$70.16
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.8%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$63.79
(+21%)
Market implied 20.8%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$35.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
