JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$52.95
-0.37 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
+2.9%
30d:
+13.04%
90d:
-2.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: JEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.81
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $52.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.09 to $51.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.09 -
$51.16
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.09 -
$51.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.08
Resistance Level
$54.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.96
Wall Street Target
$53.67
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.75
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$56.61
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$58.54
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 26.4%)
$196.83
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 26.4%)
$106.83
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 26.4%)
$90.80
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.98
Bull Case
$87.09
(+65%)
Analyst growth 48.5%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$79.18
(+50%)
Market implied 48.5%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$36.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
