KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$55.35
2.31 (4.36%)
▲
5d:
+19.49%
30d:
-12.52%
90d:
-18.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.6% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.6% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $55.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.54 to $61.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.4) compared to its historical average (85.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 130.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.01, while resistance sits at $58.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.86 (+98.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.01, while resistance sits at $58.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.86 (+98.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.54 -
$61.17
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 98.5% below Wall St target ($109.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.54 -
$61.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.01
Resistance Level
$58.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.36
Wall Street Target
$109.86
(+98.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.4 vs 85.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$44.83
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.35
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→86)
$67.17
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.4, Growth: 41.0%)
$155.01
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.0%)
$65.73
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 41.0%)
$55.87
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (83x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (51x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 83.33 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.66
Bull Case
$66.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 87.5
Base Case
$55.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 83.3
Bear Case
$42.34
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 75.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.4 to 85.5
Stabilization Target:
$92.13
(+66.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scot B Jarvis
SELL
5417 shares
2026-04-16
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-15
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-04-15
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