KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$53.19
1.10 (2.11%)
▲
5d:
-6.67%
30d:
-25.07%
90d:
-42.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
KTOS is down 9.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $85 2026-06-18 with 1,590 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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7 traders called KTOS this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KTOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KTOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $53.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.73 to $71.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 47.8) compared to its historical average (95.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 130.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.95 (+114.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.95 (+114.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.73 -
$71.68
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KTOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 114.9% below Wall St target ($111.95)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.73 -
$71.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.84
Resistance Level
$64.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.80
Wall Street Target
$111.95
(+114.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.8 vs 95.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.88
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$42.19
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$37.97
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→95)
$75.55
(+45%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.8, Growth: 42.2%)
$149.77
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 42.2%)
$69.15
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 42.2%)
$58.78
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (149x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (48x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 149.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.35
Bull Case
$62.90
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 156.7
Base Case
$52.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 149.3
Bear Case
$39.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 134.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.8 to 95.1
Stabilization Target:
$103.64
(+99.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+99.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scot B Jarvis
SELL
5417 shares
2026-04-16
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-15
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-04-15
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Advanced KTOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
