LII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LII - Lennox International Inc.
$495.08
-1.03 (-0.21%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LII shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$738.95
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$458.83
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LII is currently trading at $495.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $495.15 to $522.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $472.00, while resistance sits at $531.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $571.87 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $472.00, while resistance sits at $531.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $571.87 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$495.15 -
$522.33
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($571.87)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$495.15 -
$522.33
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$472.00
Resistance Level
$531.86
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.57
Wall Street Target
$571.87
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$482.22
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$468.72
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$455.59
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$495.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.0%)
$770.75
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 9.0%)
$641.76
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 9.0%)
$545.50
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.77
Bull Case
$629.23
(+27%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$572.03
(+16%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$331.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$539.72
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris Kosel
SELL
300 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced LII Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LII price and gamma walls.
