LII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LII - Lennox International Inc.
$443.99
6.12 (1.40%)
▲
5d:
-6.91%
30d:
-22.1%
90d:
-10.87%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LII shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LII shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$736.57
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$457.35
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LII is currently trading at $443.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $468.10 to $548.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LII is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $434.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LII has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $562.44 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LII is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $434.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LII has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $562.44 (+26.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$468.10 -
$548.81
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($562.44)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$468.10 -
$548.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$22.01
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$434.06
Resistance Level
$490.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.69
Wall Street Target
$562.44
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 19.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$418.68
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$394.82
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$372.31
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$443.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$784.46
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 9.7%)
$585.86
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 9.7%)
$497.98
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.79
Bull Case
$600.79
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.7%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$546.17
(+15%)
Market implied 16.7%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$318.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$529.33
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shane D Wall
SELL
100 shares
2026-02-25
Chris Kosel
SELL
254 shares
2026-02-04
Todd J Teske
SELL
700 shares
2026-02-04
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