LOAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOAR - Loar Holdings Inc.
$57.40
-4.67 (-7.52%)
▼
5d:
-4.01%
30d:
-7.13%
90d:
-10.95%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
LOAR is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $55 2026-06-18 with 775 OI. Put ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LOAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.72
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOAR is currently trading at $57.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.88 to $64.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 42.8) compared to its historical average (62.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOAR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $55.33, while resistance sits at $64.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: LOAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.40 (+45.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOAR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $55.33, while resistance sits at $64.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: LOAR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.40 (+45.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$56.88 -
$64.51
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.3% below Wall St target ($83.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.88 -
$64.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.39
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.33
Resistance Level
$64.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.81
Wall Street Target
$83.40
(+45.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.6%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.8 vs 62.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$46.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$41.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→63)
$61.19
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.8, Growth: 2.9%)
$62.51
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 2.9%)
$32.23
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 2.9%)
$27.40
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (87x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 87.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.71
Bull Case
$128.95
(+125%)
Analyst growth 88.9%, PE expands to 96.2
Base Case
$117.22
(+104%)
Market implied 88.9%, PE stable at 87.4
Bear Case
$42.21
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 74.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.8 to 62.6
Stabilization Target:
$83.94
(+46.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paul S Levy
BUY
75000 shares
2026-03-13
Anthony Carpenito
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-13
Anthony Carpenito
BUY
4750 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced LOAR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LOAR price and gamma walls.
