MATV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MATV - Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$8.19
-0.44 (-5.10%)
▼
5d:
-11.17%
30d:
-13.24%
90d:
-44.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MATV is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MATV is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.66
44.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MATV is currently trading at $8.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.60 to $9.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6447.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+156.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+156.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.60 -
$9.62
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 156.4% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.60 -
$9.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.32
Resistance Level
$9.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.55
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+156.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6447.8%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.63
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.97
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$8.84
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 47.1%)
$87.74
(+971%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 47.1%)
$26.05
(+218%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 47.1%)
$22.14
(+170%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$8.42
(+3%)
Analyst growth -11.3%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$7.65
(-7%)
Market implied -11.3%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$5.87
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.12
(+48.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MATV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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