MAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MAX - MediaAlpha, Inc.

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
$13.43
0.63 (4.92%) β–²
5d: +22.09%
30d: +51.24%
90d: +47.91%
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LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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πŸ’‘
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MAX is 26.8% above its trading range ($10.59). Market expects 10.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction β†’

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.49
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.86
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MAX is currently trading at $13.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.58 to $10.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.

Market Sentiment: MAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $8.58 - $10.59
Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 52.4%

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MAX is technically overbought (RSI 86). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+26.8% above its trading range)
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.67)
  • NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.1% growth expectation is conservative given 1412% recent growth
  • WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 26.8% overvaluation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $8.58 - $10.59
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $9.76
Resistance Level $13.60
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Jul 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.78
Wall Street Target $13.67 (+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 1412.2%
Profit Margin 3.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +10.1% premium
PE vs Historical 8.8 vs 6.6 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +10.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $14.79 (+10%)
2-Year Target $16.28 (+21%)
3-Year Target $17.92 (+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9β†’7) PE COMPRESSION $13.48 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.5%) $56.91 (+324%)
Base: (SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 19.5%) $22.94 (+71%)
Bear: (PE: 6.6, Growth: 19.5%) $17.25 (+28%)
πŸ“ˆ Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case $28.16 (+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case $25.60 (+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case $8.70 (-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:31 AM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Yi SELL 4000 shares 2026-04-22
Eugene Nonko SELL 15172 shares 2026-04-21
Eugene Nonko SELL 22274 shares 2026-04-21

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