MC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$63.73
-1.03 (-1.59%)
▼
5d:
-2.07%
30d:
-4.94%
90d:
-3.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.12
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $63.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.90 to $68.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$61.90 -
$68.05
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.90 -
$68.05
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.86
Resistance Level
$66.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.39
Wall Street Target
$70.90
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 17.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.46
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$62.20
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$60.95
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$64.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 27.9%)
$182.07
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 27.9%)
$135.42
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 27.9%)
$115.11
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.78
Bull Case
$100.15
(+55%)
Analyst growth 42.1%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$91.05
(+41%)
Market implied 42.1%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$43.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$68.74
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 4:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Osamu R Watanabe
SELL
2765 shares
2026-02-19
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