MCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$98.10
-0.53 (-0.54%)
▼
5d:
-1.58%
30d:
+3.82%
90d:
+4.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.21
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $98.10, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.22 to $98.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.00, while resistance sits at $102.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.00 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $92.00, while resistance sits at $102.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.00 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$93.22 -
$98.77
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($110.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.22 -
$98.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.00
Resistance Level
$102.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.26
Wall Street Target
$110.00
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.9%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.14
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$104.28
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$107.51
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.19
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -11.1%)
$128.71
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -11.1%)
$71.51
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: -11.1%)
$60.79
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.03
Bull Case
$57.75
(-41%)
Analyst growth -46.8%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$52.50
(-47%)
Market implied -46.8%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$67.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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