MEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEC - Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$21.92
0.11 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+4.48%
30d:
+23.84%
90d:
+19.13%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.54
43.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEC is currently trading at $21.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.07 to $21.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (34.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MEC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.70 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MEC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.70 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.07 -
$21.26
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($26.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.07 -
$21.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.43
(15.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.59
Resistance Level
$22.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.19
Wall Street Target
$26.70
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.4%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 34.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→35)
$32.07
(+46%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 537.5%)
$88.69
(+305%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 537.5%)
$73.98
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 537.5%)
$62.88
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 34.5
Stabilization Target:
$43.99
(+100.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+100.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sean P Leuba
SELL
6698 shares
2026-03-05
Sean P Leuba
SELL
2500 shares
2026-03-05
Steven L Fisher
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-11
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