MKC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS
$48.95
-0.28 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
+3.62%
30d:
+7.35%
90d:
-16.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
10d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MKC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MKC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.28
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.23
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKC is currently trading at $48.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.41 to $48.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 528.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.31 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.31 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$46.41 -
$48.38
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($61.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.41 -
$48.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.53
Resistance Level
$49.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.67
Wall Street Target
$61.31
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
528.3%
Profit Margin
23.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 17.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.92
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$43.07
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$40.40
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$49.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$91.79
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 7.9%)
$61.42
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 7.9%)
$52.20
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.10
Bull Case
$29.63
(-40%)
Analyst growth -45.3%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$26.93
(-45%)
Market implied -45.3%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$33.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$59.41
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 6:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gavin Hattersley
BUY
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Lawrence Erik Kurzius
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-12
Michael D Mangan
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-09
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