MKL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKL - Markel Group Inc.
$1844.00
-2.01 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+1.62%
30d:
-6.31%
90d:
-10.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MKL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.1% annual earnings decline despite 95% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MKL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.1% annual earnings decline despite 95% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2973.22
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1846.14
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKL is currently trading at $1844.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1802.54 to $1957.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1868.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1868.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MKL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1802.54 -
$1957.87
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($2005.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1802.54 -
$1957.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1749.23
Resistance Level
$1868.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.77
Wall Street Target
$2005.40
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1768.40
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$1695.89
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$1626.36
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$1850.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$3714.27
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$2485.43
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 10.5%)
$2112.62
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $138.27
Bull Case
$1833.71
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.7%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$1667.01
(-10%)
Market implied -9.7%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$1255.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$2097.68
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Simon Wilson
SELL
100 shares
2026-02-26
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-23
Steven A Markel
SELL
1330 shares
2025-12-11
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