MLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$139.30
-0.25 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
+1.12%
30d:
+15.45%
90d:
+17.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MLI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.32
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $139.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.30 to $138.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$121.30 -
$138.90
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($149.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.30 -
$138.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.37
Resistance Level
$141.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.92
Wall Street Target
$149.50
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.4%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.64
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$146.07
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$149.57
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$139.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.2%)
$217.97
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 4.2%)
$157.45
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 4.2%)
$133.83
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.63
Bull Case
$176.04
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$160.03
(+15%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$94.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Jay Goldman
SELL
4430 shares
2026-02-13
John B Hansen
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-09
Scott Jay Goldman
SELL
4234 shares
2025-11-25
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