MMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMS - MAXIMUS, Inc.
$55.75
1.92 (3.57%)
▲
5d:
+1.23%
30d:
-8.49%
90d:
-10.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.73
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.54
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMS is currently trading at $55.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.30 to $62.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.00 (+88.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.00 (+88.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$57.30 -
$62.34
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 88.3% below Wall St target ($105.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.30 -
$62.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.26
Resistance Level
$63.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.15
Wall Street Target
$105.00
(+88.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$45.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$55.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$245.60
(+341%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$69.31
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 7.5%)
$58.92
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.66
Bull Case
$80.64
(+45%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$73.31
(+32%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$36.60
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$76.19
(+36.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jan Madsen
SELL
742 shares
2026-03-17
Bruce Caswell
BUY
3175 shares
2026-02-10
David Mutryn
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-09
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