MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$12.43
-0.59 (-4.53%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.34
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $12.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.42 to $13.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+53.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+53.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$12.42 -
$13.14
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.6% below Wall St target ($20.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.42 -
$13.14
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.24
(10.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.53
Resistance Level
$13.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.42
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+53.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.66
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$12.48
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$12.95
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 90.8%)
$132.09
(+915%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 90.8%)
$43.94
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 90.8%)
$37.35
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.34
Bull Case
$15.01
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$12.43
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$9.51
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$13.51
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
