MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$10.77
-0.13 (-1.19%)
▼
5d:
+0.28%
30d:
+4.16%
90d:
-13.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 16, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MPAA is down 23.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $12.5 2026-03-20 with 12 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.46
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $10.77, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.21 to $10.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.05, while resistance sits at $11.28.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+68.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.05, while resistance sits at $11.28.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+68.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$10.21 -
$10.78
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.2% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.21 -
$10.78
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.36
(12.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.05
Resistance Level
$11.28
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.15
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+68.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.81
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.73
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$10.64
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$10.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 103.3%)
$115.29
(+958%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 103.3%)
$36.79
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 103.3%)
$31.27
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.16
Bull Case
$12.97
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$10.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$8.22
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.13
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bryan
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
