MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$92.03
-2.52 (-2.66%)
▼
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+8.39%
90d:
+11.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $92.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.26 to $89.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 60.1) is in line with its historical norms (54.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$78.26 -
$89.71
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.26 -
$89.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.64
Resistance Level
$94.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
60.09
Wall Street Target
$100.25
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
60.1 vs 54.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.97
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$98.01
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$101.15
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 60→55)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 60.1, Growth: 42.5%)
$266.16
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 42.5%)
$97.76
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 42.5%)
$83.10
(-10%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth
SELL
3625 shares
2026-04-16
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
100899 shares
2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
168648 shares
2026-03-03
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