MRP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$26.71
-0.59 (-2.16%)
▼
5d:
-0.82%
30d:
-12.8%
90d:
-16.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When MRP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called MRP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.33
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $26.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.77 to $30.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 89.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.77 -
$30.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($38.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.77 -
$30.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.30
Resistance Level
$31.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$38.60
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
135.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
89.7%
Profit Margin
65.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.51
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$24.36
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$23.26
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$26.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.0%)
$80.25
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.0%)
$30.07
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 4.0%)
$25.56
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$34.77
(+30%)
Analyst growth 15.8%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$31.61
(+18%)
Market implied 15.8%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$18.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$30.68
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 6:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Matthew B Gorson
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-05
Top Rated REIT - Residential Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Residential by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MAA
Mid-America Apartment Co… |
BUY
26 analysts |
$142 | 54 HOLD |
|
ESS
Essex Property Trust Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$281 | 64 BUY |
|
INVH
Invitation Homes Inc |
HOLD
24 analysts |
$31 | 57 HOLD |
|
EQR
Equity Residential |
HOLD
26 analysts |
$70 | 48 HOLD |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent |
BUY
23 analysts |
$35 | 47 HOLD |
