MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$567.89
6.21 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-1.74%
30d:
+15.63%
90d:
+47.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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1 traders called MUSA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$434.16
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$269.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $567.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $504.58 to $581.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $556.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $556.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$504.58 -
$581.45
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($558.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$504.58 -
$581.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$556.53
Resistance Level
$609.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.22
Wall Street Target
$558.00
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$585.27
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$609.85
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$635.47
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$562.09
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -9.1%)
$483.76
(+-14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: -9.1%)
$421.27
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: -9.1%)
$358.08
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.75
Bull Case
$644.29
(+15%)
Analyst growth 1.7%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$585.72
(+4%)
Market implied 1.7%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$391.82
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
Keith A Emery
SELL
899 shares
2026-02-26
Jeanne Linder Phillips
SELL
1155 shares
2026-02-24
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