NCMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.
$2.80
-0.14 (-4.76%)
▼
5d:
-23.71%
30d:
-19.54%
90d:
-14.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NCMI is down 23.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NCMI is down 23.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCMI is currently trading at $2.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.21 to $3.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (38.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.25 (+87.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.25 (+87.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.21 -
$3.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 87.5% below Wall St target ($5.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -23.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.21 -
$3.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.85
Resistance Level
$3.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.06
Wall Street Target
$5.25
(+87.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
-3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 38.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.04
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→39)
$4.35
(+55%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 287.5%)
$11.55
(+312%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 287.5%)
$9.45
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 287.5%)
$8.03
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 38.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.97
(+113.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+113.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
12066 shares
2026-04-01
Maria Vg Woods
SELL
9043 shares
2025-12-29
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