NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$82.73
1.50 (1.85%)
▲
5d:
+4.14%
30d:
-5.46%
90d:
-5.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Get Alerted When NFG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.34
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $82.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.31 to $90.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.67 (+25.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.67 (+25.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$81.31 -
$90.07
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($101.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.31 -
$90.07
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.22
Resistance Level
$84.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.19
Wall Street Target
$101.67
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$79.77
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$79.06
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$81.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.8%)
$208.30
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 5.8%)
$96.15
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.8%)
$81.73
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$96.61
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$87.83
(+8%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$55.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$83.72
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas Integrated by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corp |
BUY
28 analysts |
$168 | 61 BUY |
|
CVX
Chevron Corp |
BUY
25 analysts |
$215 | 65 BUY |
|
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$29 | 62 BUY |
|
SHEL
Shell PLC ADR |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$100 | 57 HOLD |
|
SU
Suncor Energy Inc |
BUY
21 analysts |
$60 | 59 HOLD |
