NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$79.34
1.84 (2.37%)
▲
5d:
+3.7%
30d:
+3.79%
90d:
-14.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.89
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $79.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.33 to $78.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.33 -
$78.23
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($101.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.33 -
$78.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.85
Resistance Level
$79.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.11
Wall Street Target
$101.50
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.71
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$77.45
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$78.89
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.9%)
$203.24
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 5.9%)
$94.36
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 5.9%)
$80.20
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$90.39
(+14%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$82.17
(+4%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$52.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$80.82
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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